50 Years From Now

 What will become of Japan’s sex industry 50 years from now?

 I will be dead or have lost potency then, so it’s nothing to think about. But I’ll try to guess for fun.

 First of all, will the current law on sexual stuff change? The government is getting tougher and tougher on it, so I think it won’t.

1 It applies to TV programs. Sexual description that was common 20 years ago are rarely seen recently. One of the reasons would be the Internet where opinions of each individual, including parents, counts a lot more than before.

 Days ago, the United Nations issued a statement about Japanese child pornography. I think it’s a good thing. Even a native Japanese like me feels something unusual about it, though I know it’s a part of the culture.

 The trend will become stronger. I believe that as time goes by, that what can be done will be impossible, and that what can not be done will stay the same.

 An example of what cannot be done is, it’s banned to open a new soapland, hote-heru or hako-heru. Specifically, you can’t get a new operating license. If you want to start these businesses, you need to buy or rent existing ones.

 Plus, the licenses always come with real estate. They allow you to operate a sex establishment at a particular place, and nowhere else. Renovation is okay, but construction is forbidden.

 On the other hand, it’s legally okay to open a new deri-heru. It’s the only kind of sex establishment you can get a new license. It doesn’t have a front desk and attract customers through the Internet alone.

 In the long run, soaplands and hote-heru and hako-heru types of sex establishments will be gone down the line. 50 years from now, over half of them will have, because of architectural deterioration. Even today, I know some of them are refurbished frequently.

 The most popular service of soapland is “mat play.” People will miss it. I guess deri-heru clubs which feature the service might appear in the near future.

 Anyway, almost all of Japan’s sex establishments will belong to the deri-heru type. It has become the mainstream even today. Roughly 20,000 operating licenses of sex clubs exist in the whole Japan. Surveys show nearly the half of them run actually, and half of which fall under deri-heru, despite the fact that it was born just about a dozen years ago.

 Considering Japan’s declining birth rate, aging population, loss of interest in sexuality, and increase of entertainment such as smartphone games, the whole sum of sex clubs are on the decrease over the long haul.

 The above is my personal prediction. It would be better not to take it as it is.

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